Russia, Ukraine and Crimea

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An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:

Russia's annexation of Crimea is part of its grand strategy to extend the frontiers of its own power and military might.

When the cold war ended and the USSR broke up, the Russian core was left exposed and vulnerable. Had the United states moved in for the kill, today Russia would be no more. But the United States did not act as it became tied down in Iraq in the 1990s, and later in both the Jihadist war as well as in Iraq again in the 2000s. The failure of NATO and the United states to act decisively to remove the Russian threat once and for all has given Russia the chance to become a regional hegemon again.

While the US was distracted by the Jihadist war and became tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia took the opportunity to consolidate its power. It embarked on an economic strategy of exporting raw materials to boost its economy. That strategy paid remarkable dividends. The commodity boom of 2000-2010 gave Russia much needed wealth to revitalize its economy as well as its military. As such Russia is now a force to contend with again.

Russia hopes to regain its former glory. To do so, Russia must build first build deep borders to provide a wide buffer to protect its seats of power, Moscow and St Petersburg, from European and NATO military forces. That is the Grand Strategy of Russia. The co-option of Ukraine into its circle of military and economic influence, and its recent annexation of Crimea is part of this Grand Strategy. Russia must have deep borders in order to be secure.

As Russia strives once again to become a regional hegemon, its actions will run counter to America's Grand Strategy. In order to maintain control of all major sea lanes of the world, America must prevent any regional hegemon from forming. The stage is thus set for rematch between America and Russia.

Over the next decade, America and Russia will lock horns. A low intensity Cold War will develop, but not one as intense and monochromatic as the Cold War of the 1950s to 1980s. America will help China stabilize itself politically, economically and military because like in the previous Cold War, America will once again want to use China as a force with which to check Russia.


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