Myanmar economy skyrockets as 100k Rohingya flee

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It is an uncommon phenomenon. Traditionally, when a country suffers from refugee exodus, such as that during communist takeover of China, the fall of Saigon in Vietnam, Khmer Rouge Cambodia, civil war era Sri Lanka, and modern day Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, the economy goes into decline or experience stagnated growth. But this is not the case for Myanmar, where the number of Rohingya fleeing the country has topped 100,000 by latest estimate. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Myanmar's economy will grow by an average 8% in the next few years, and 8.25% in 2014, which would make it the new fastest-growing economy in ASEAN.


Myanmar's economic growth reaches new high as 100,000 Rohingya left the country

Chris Lewa, director of the nonprofit advocacy group Arakan Project, said the number of Rohingya fleeing Myanmar since communal violence broke out two years ago have exceeded 100,000, including a huge surge since Oct. 15, where an average of 900 people per day piling into cargo ships parked off Rakhine state. That's nearly 10,000 in less than two weeks, she noted, one of the biggest spikes yet. "The real number may be higher," Lewa said.

She said some Rohingya families have received phone calls notifying them that ships from the latest exodus have started arriving in neighboring Thailand, where passengers often are brought to jungle camps, facing extortion and beatings until relatives come up with enough money to win their release. From there they usually travel to Malaysia, a Muslim-majority country, but, still stateless, their futures remain bleak. Lewa said a number of Rohingya were also moving overland to Bangladesh and on to India and Nepal.


Myanmar ignores international pressure and continue to expel the Rohingyas

The Rohingya is a high crime and high poverty group in Myanmar. Two years ago, the Rakhine riot was triggered after a group of Muslim Rohingya robbed, raped and murdered an Buddhist Rakhine woman, Ma Thida Htwe, near her village in Tha Pri Chaung. It was followed by a reprisal attack by Buddhist mobs on a bus carrying Muslim men. Outraged, a large mob of Rohingya then burnt several villages, destroying hundreds of homes, and the Rakhines strike back, leading to a full state riot. The Rakhine people constitute the majority population in the Burmese state of Rakhine, while the Rohingya second largest ethnic group at 20%.

Myanmar, a predominantly Buddhist nation of 50 million that only recently emerged from half a century of military rule, has an estimated 1.3 million Rohingya. Though many of their families arrived from neighboring Bangladesh generations ago, many have been denied citizenship, a condition similar to the ethnic Chinese and Iban in fellow ASEAN state Brunei. In the last two years, attacks by Buddhist mobs have left hundreds dead and 140,000 trapped in camps, where they live without access to adequate health care, education or jobs. Myanmar officially categorize them as "Bengalis" – implying they are illegal migrants from neighboring Bangladesh, a country poorer than Myanmar in per capita income.


Myanmar's economy to emerge as ASEAN fastest-growing in 2014 at 8.25%, while Brunei the laggard at 1.1%

Historical pattern would suggest, under such circumstances, there would a negative or punctured economic growth for Myanmar. If anything, neighboring Cambodia during and after the fall of Khmer Rouge, and post-reunification Vietnam could be an example. It would take at least 10 years before the economy is to be stabilized. But Myanmar has a surprise. Both the IMF and World Bank predicted that it would emerge as ASEAN fastest-growing economy starting this year. The UN says it could become a new Asian tiger by 2030. Foreign investments from Europe, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore are pouring in.

The once-isolated nation awarded a large number of investment concessions, but not exclusively, to countries from the Buddhist realm. 51 Chinese companies have invested US$14.38 billion in the country, making them the biggest enterprise investor. The US$6.5-billion investment by 67 Singapore firms made Singapore the second-largest source of foreign investment, and the US$6.2 billion by 93 Hong Kong firms made Hong Kong the third-largest. This is followed by 44 Thai companies at US$3.1 billion, making Thailand the fourth largest in terms of enterprise investors. In total investment, China and Thailand alone make up 56% of the inflows.

Could Myanmar's reform-minded president steer the country to become Asia's next South Korea?

Bloomberg reported that Myanmar is emerging as the new frontier that threaten to overtake Indonesia as the world's biggest tin exporter. Output in Myanmar will rise by 12% to 28,000 metric tons next year, giving it 10% of the global market, according to ITRI Ltd., a St. Albans, England-based industry group. Indonesia remains at top with 91,613 metric tons but exports is scheduled to drop 30%. Burmese Industry Minister Soe Thein said if everything goes well, the country will shed its title of 'ASEAN poorest' in per capita income within 2-3 years, handing it to Cambodia or Laos.

According to Union Minister for National Planning and Economic Development Kan Zaw, the World Bank and IMF prediction is actually conservative. He says GDP expanded 5.6% in 2011, rising to 7.3% and 8.7% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The government's own project is 9.1% in 2014 - above IMF and World Bank's 8.25-8.5% If that is true, it would make Myanmar Asia's third fastest-growing economy after Mongolia and Macau.


Myanmar says Rohingya problems will not deter its economic ambitions

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) says Myanmar needs to fund US$80 billion of power, transport and technology projects through 2030, in order to support annual expansion that it saw reaching 9.5% by 2030, said assistant chief economist Park Cyn-young. That would allow Myanmar to achieve 'Asian tiger' status as what was experienced by Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea in the 1970s to 1990s. Tourist arrivals was 816,000 in 2011. It is expected to fetch 2.2 million this year - nearly tripled.

Myanmar's tech-savvy native sons and daughters are also returning from overseas and develop the local industry. "Myanmar is hot right now, people," Code for Change Myanmar founder David Madden told about 60 attendees at Myanmar Startup Day in Singapore, an event hosted by Ooredoo's entrepreneurship-focused offshoot Ideabox Myanmar on October 11. "Come home." Singapore has long been a draw for Myanmar. Some estimates put the number of Burmese living in Singapore at 100,000, nearly 2 percent of the city-state’s total 5.5 million people, often driven to the city for economic reasons. Singapore is Southeast Asia's wealthiest state.


Companies from China, Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore rush to develop Myanmar

They are highly skilled, and they are coming back to Myanmar. "Historically, there's been a pretty strong flow of people out of Myanmar into other parts of the region, especially Singapore," Mr Madden said. "I think for many people Singapore was the default place to go and get a university degree, to get further education. It was the place to get a good job, a well-paying job with an internationally known company. But that stream of people is changing course, especially for those interested in technology. What we're seeing now is that there's so much interesting and exciting stuff happening in Myanmar that there's a real case for people to come back, to come home," Mr Madden said.

Under the British rule, in late 1940s to early 1950s, Myanmar, also known as Burma, was the richest state in Southeast Asia. It was also once the world's largest exporter of rice and produced 75% of the world's teak and 90% of the world's rubies, together with the most literate population in the region. If we go earlier, in early 20th century, Yangon was known as "the garden city of the East, and had public services and infrastructure on par with London. In early 1950s, the Yangon International Airport was once regarded as the best in Southeast Asia. Historically, it was considered to be the main international airport in connecting Southeast Asia with the rest of the world before the rise of Singapore.



A country filled with golden pagodas, will Myanmar regain its former wealth and glories?

The decline began under Prime Minister U N, who in 1948 attempted to make Burma a welfare state and central planning socialist economy. Rice exports fell by two thirds and mineral exports by over 96%. Plans were partly financed by printing money, which led to hyperinflation. In 1962, a military coup d'état followed by an economic scheme called the Burmese Way to Socialism, a plan to nationalize all industries, with the exception of agriculture turned Burma into one of the world's most impoverished countries. In 2011, a new reform-minded president, Thein Sein, reopened the country to the world.

SOS :

http://globalnews.ca/news/1635151/nu...r-tops-100000/
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/100000-mino...yanmar-1471762
http://business.asiaone.com/news/mya...ming-years-imf
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...east-asia.html
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/...-30245109.html


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